• Galileo quotes Aristotle (p.19):
  

For nature, as Aristotle well says himself, never undertakes to do that which cannot be done, nor endeavors to move whither it is impossible to arrive.

1. Aristotle: Nature never undertakes to do that which cannot be done.
   
2. Aristotle: Nature does not endeavor to move whether it is impossible to arrive.
   
3. This must be a famous observation but I never heard it before. So true. I guess this is usually shortened to “nature does nothing in vain”.
   
4. I wonder if, similarly, nature allows for exceptions.
   
5. Because laws of nature are not like human laws. There is not the option not to obey natural laws. I guess that’s why there are no punishments in nature. There are no judgments.
   
6. We don’t even know if nature is a legal system.
   
7. But since there is no option to opt out of nature’s laws then there may not be exceptions.
   
8. Yes, there are probabilities. Because nature calculates probabilities. But probability is not an exception
   
9. Human female normally gives birth to a single baby. Twins is not an exception. Even sextuplets are not an exception but withing calculated probability boundaries.
   
10. Exception in a way should be like a miracle and we know there are no miracles in nature.
    
11. We encounter exceptions in physics axioms
    
12. Physicists state an axiom and they corrupt it with exceptions. This is called casuistry. You invent an explanation for each case
    

What is the highest recorded number of babies given birth by a mother at one time? And do we know the probabilities for each numbers? Like what is the probability of having twins, triples etc?

### Highest Recorded Number of Babies Born at Once
The highest recorded number of babies born at one time by a single mother is 9 (nonuplets). This occurred in May 2021 when Halima Cissé from Mali gave birth to nonuplets—five girls and four boys. All the babies survived and were healthy at birth, which is an extremely rare occurrence.

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### Probabilities of Having Multiple Births
The probabilities of multiple births vary by population, maternal age, use of fertility treatments, and genetic factors. Below are general estimates based on natural conception:

• Twins:
  
  • Overall probability: ~1 in 85 pregnancies (~1.2%).
    
  • Fraternal twins are more common (~70% of twins) than identical twins.
    
• Triplets:
  
  • Probability: ~1 in 8,100 pregnancies (~0.012%).
    
• Quadruplets:
  
  • Probability: ~1 in 729,000 pregnancies (~0.00014%).
    
• Quintuplets (5 babies):
  
  • Probability: ~1 in 55 million pregnancies (~0.0000018%).
    
• Sextuplets (6 babies):
  
  • Probability: ~1 in 4.7 billion pregnancies (~0.000000021%).
    
• Higher-Order Multiples (7 or more):
  
  • Natural conception probability becomes extraordinarily rare—often less than 1 in tens of billions.
    

### Factors Affecting These Probabilities

1. Maternal Age: Older mothers (especially those over 30) are more likely to conceive twins naturally due to increased release of multiple eggs.
   
2. Genetics: Family history of twins increases the likelihood, particularly on the maternal side.
   
3. Fertility Treatments: Significantly increase the probability of multiple births due to stimulation of ovulation or implantation of multiple embryos.
   

Would you like more details on any of these factors?

What is the probability of single baby, I think you missed that?

You’re right—thank you for pointing that out! Here’s the breakdown including the probability of having a single baby:

### Probabilities of Singleton and Multiple Births

• Single Baby (Singleton): ~97-98% of pregnancies.
  
  • This is by far the most common outcome in natural conception.
    
• Twins: ~1.2% (1 in 85 pregnancies).
  
• Triplets: ~0.012% (1 in 8,100 pregnancies).
  
• Quadruplets: ~0.00014% (1 in 729,000 pregnancies).
  
• Quintuplets: ~0.0000018% (1 in 55 million pregnancies).
  
• Higher-Order Multiples (6+): Less than ~0.000000021% (1 in billions).
  

### Summary
The vast majority of pregnancies result in a single baby. The likelihood of multiple births decreases exponentially as the number of babies increases, especially for naturally conceived pregnancies.

How reliable are these numbers? If 1 in 85 pregnancies are twins, I would expect to see more twins around.

Great question! The reliability of these numbers depends on a variety of factors, such as the population studied, advances in fertility treatments, and the specific conditions in which the statistics were gathered. Let’s break it down:

### Why You May Not See Twins as Often

1. Population Distribution:
   
   • The “1 in 85 pregnancies” statistic refers to the global average for naturally conceived twins. However, this rate can vary significantly by region. For example:
     
     • Twins are more common in some African populations (e.g., Yoruba in Nigeria) and less common in East Asian populations.
       
     • In the U.S. and Europe, twins are more common due to the use of fertility treatments and older maternal age.
       
   • If you live in an area where twins are less common naturally, you might not notice them as much.
     
2. Singleton Births Dominate:
   
   • Since ~97-98% of all births are singletons, twins still make up only a small fraction of the total population, even if the probability is 1 in 85 pregnancies.
     
3. Miscarriage of Multiples:
   
   • Many twin or higher-order pregnancies reduce to singletons during early development due to the “vanishing twin” phenomenon. This means the real number of twin pregnancies might be higher than observed births.
     
4. Perceived Scarcity:
   
   • Even though 1 in 85 pregnancies might seem common, it translates to about 1 twin birth in every 170 people (since twins count as one pregnancy). In a typical social circle, this might not be a noticeable number.
     

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### Why the Statistics Are Reliable
The 1 in 85 figure comes from a long history of observational data, particularly before fertility treatments became widespread. It represents the natural twinning rate, which is relatively stable across large populations. Adjustments are made for known factors like maternal age, genetics, and regional variations.

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### Factors That Influence Twin Rates

• Natural Factors:
  
  • Genetic predisposition: Having a family history of fraternal twins increases the likelihood.
    
  • Maternal age: Women aged 30-39 are more likely to conceive twins.
    
• Modern Influences:
  
  • Fertility treatments: Drugs and IVF have increased the twin birth rate in recent decades.
    
  • Improved healthcare: More high-order multiples survive due to advances in neonatal care.
    

If you’re curious, I can look up the most recent twin statistics for your region to see how they compare to global averages!

This is fine. I was curious because I noticed that nature works with probabilities. For instance, cat mother gives birth to at least 3 or 4 kittens because nature has computed the odds that at least 1 or 2 kittens will not survive to maturity. But in humans more babies reach maturity so single babies are the norm. Can we say that “nature is probabilistic”?

Yes, you’re absolutely correct—nature operates in a probabilistic way, and your observation is a great example of how evolutionary pressures shape reproductive strategies in different species. Let’s explore this idea further.

—

### Nature as Probabilistic
Nature often works through probabilistic mechanisms to optimize survival and reproduction in the face of environmental challenges and uncertainties. Here are a few examples:

#### 1. Reproductive Strategies Vary by Species

• r-strategists (e.g., cats, fish, insects):
  
  • These species produce many offspring at once, with the expectation that only a small percentage will survive to adulthood.
    
  • This strategy compensates for high predation rates, limited parental care, or unpredictable environments.
    
  • Probability: More offspring = higher likelihood some survive.
    
• K-strategists (e.g., humans, elephants):
  
  • These species invest heavily in fewer offspring, with more energy devoted to parental care and ensuring survival.
    
  • In humans, modern medicine and societal structures have further increased the probability of each child reaching adulthood, making “singleton” births the most efficient reproductive strategy.
    

#### 2. Survival of the Fittest

• Evolution itself is probabilistic. Mutations occur randomly, and natural selection determines which traits are passed on based on environmental pressures.
  
• Not every individual survives or reproduces, but populations adapt over time because of probabilistic success.
  

#### 3. Genetic Variability

• Sexual reproduction introduces variability, which ensures a population has diverse traits. This diversity increases the probability that some individuals will survive environmental changes.
  

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### Why Human Singleton Births Are Common
As you pointed out, humans tend to have single babies because:

1. High Survival Rates: Modern humans have reduced infant mortality rates due to medical advances, stable food supplies, and fewer predators.
   
2. Parental Investment: Raising a child to maturity is resource-intensive, so a single baby maximizes parental care and resources.
   

—

### Nature and Probabilistic Design
Your analogy about cats and humans highlights an important principle: nature “computes” probabilities based on environmental and biological realities. This doesn’t mean nature is “conscious,” but rather that systems shaped by evolution behave as though they were designed probabilistically.

In this sense, nature isn’t deterministic—it’s a dynamic system where randomness and probabilities play central roles. For example:

• Seeds scatter randomly to increase chances of growth.
  
• Predator-prey dynamics follow probabilistic models of survival and escape.
  
• Even quantum mechanics at the smallest scales is inherently probabilistic, influencing biology indirectly.
  

Would you like to explore specific examples of probabilistic principles in nature or their philosophical implications?

Sounds good. I have another somewhat related question. Would you agree that there are no exceptions in nature? What looks like exception is really something law probability happenning. So unlike human laws natural laws do not admit exceptions. There is no option not to obey a natural law. Do you agree?

Yes, I largely agree with your observation: natural laws do not admit exceptions in the way human laws might. What we perceive as “exceptions” in nature are often just rare, low-probability events that still conform to the underlying rules of natural laws. Here’s a deeper dive into this concept:

—

### Natural Laws Are Universal and Exceptionless

• Natural Laws Are Descriptive, Not Prescriptive:
  
  • Unlike human laws, which are prescriptive (rules we create and enforce), natural laws describe how the universe inherently operates. They are not optional and do not require enforcement—everything must obey them.
    
  • For example, objects must obey gravity, and particles must conform to quantum mechanics.
    
• What Looks Like an Exception Is Rare but Lawful:
  
  • Rare events, such as a person surviving an extreme fall or a black swan event in evolution, are not violations of natural laws. They are statistical outliers that are fully consistent with the underlying probabilistic framework of those laws.
    

—

### Probabilistic Nature of Many Natural Laws

1. Quantum Mechanics:
   
   • At the quantum level, many processes are inherently probabilistic. For example, the exact time a radioactive atom decays cannot be predicted, but the overall decay rate follows precise statistical laws.
     
   • Even “weird” phenomena like quantum tunneling are consistent with the laws of quantum mechanics; they simply have low probabilities of occurring.
     
2. Evolution and Biology:
   
   • Mutations in DNA may seem like “exceptions,” but they arise due to known biochemical processes. Some mutations lead to rare traits or phenomena, yet all of them are governed by natural laws.
     
3. Outliers in Classical Physics:
   
   • Extremely rare events, like a massive asteroid impact, follow Newtonian or gravitational laws, but because of their rarity, they may seem like anomalies.
     

—

### Why Natural Laws Admit No Exceptions

1. Universality:
   
   • Natural laws apply everywhere and at all times (as far as we know). For instance, the speed of light in a vacuum is constant, and gravity operates universally.
     
2. Consistency:
   
   • The fundamental forces (gravity, electromagnetism, strong and weak nuclear forces) act consistently and predictably. What changes are the conditions and context, not the laws themselves.
     
3. No “Choice” in Nature:
   
   • Unlike humans, nature does not “decide” whether to follow a law. A ball dropped from a height cannot choose not to fall—it simply obeys gravity.
     

—

### Apparent “Exceptions” Are Misunderstood Regularities
Sometimes what looks like an exception to a natural law arises because:

1. Our Understanding Is Incomplete:
   
   • Early scientists thought Newton’s laws were universal, but later discovered that relativistic effects occur at very high speeds or in strong gravitational fields. This didn’t invalidate Newton’s laws—it showed they are approximations valid in most everyday contexts.
     
2. Low-Probability Events Happen:
   
   • Rare events like a snowstorm in the desert or a freak mutation in evolution are statistically improbable but not impossible. They still conform to natural laws.
     
3. Complex Interactions:
   
   • In systems with many variables (like ecosystems or weather), outcomes can appear chaotic or unpredictable, but they still follow deterministic or probabilistic rules.
     

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### Final Thoughts
I agree with your statement: natural laws do not admit exceptions. What we interpret as exceptions are usually rare or complex outcomes governed by the same rules. The key difference between natural laws and human laws is that natural laws are descriptive and universal—they define what must happen in a given context.